CICC released a research note stating that since the second half of 2025, China’s monthly heavy-duty truck (HDT) export volumes have reached a new level. According to China General Administration of Customs, HDT exports rose 12.5% year-on-year (YoY) to 371,000 units in 2025. Robust demand for real estate and highway infrastructure in markets like Vietnam, plus strong mining investment activity in Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Tanzania, underpin sustainable growth potential for HDT demand across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. CICC is optimistic about the long-term prospects of China’s HDT overseas expansion, projecting 5–20% YoY export growth in 2026 to 350,000–400,000 units. Leading exporters will further consolidate their dominance; CICC recommends Sinotruk (000951.SZ, 03808.HK), a front-runner in HDT exports.
Key Views from CICC
Strong 2025 Export Growth, Momentum to Persist in 2026
Customs data shows 2025 HDT exports totaled 371,000 units (+12.5% YoY). By region, shipments to Africa, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Central Asia stood at 149,000, 96,000, 45,000, 29,000, and 27,000 units respectively, with YoY growth rates of 60%, 47%, 54%, 27%, and 51%. These regions accounted for 40%, 26%, 12%, 8%, and 7% of total exports. CICC argues that booming infrastructure in Vietnam and intensive mining investment in Indonesia, DRC, and Tanzania will sustain HDT demand growth in developing markets, supporting its 2026 export forecast of 350k–400k units (5–20% YoY).
Leaders Cement Dominance: Secure Asia-Africa Base, Expand into Europe
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) data recorded 341,000 HDT exports in 2025 (+17% YoY). Among key players:
- Sinotruk: 153,000 units exported (+29% YoY), 45% market share
- Shaanxi Automobile Group: 58,000 units (-8% YoY), 17% market share
- FAW Jiefang: 60,000 units (+8% YoY), 18% market share
- Foton Motor: 27,000 units (+131% YoY), 8% market share
- Dongfeng Motor: 30,000 units (+13% YoY), 9% market share
Sinotruk’s official WeChat account announced that its HDT exports exceeded 16,000 units in January 2026, a new all-time high.
CICC notes that Sinotruk has spent over 20 years cultivating overseas markets, establishing 37 KD (Knocked-Down) assembly plants and more than 700 service outlets and spare parts centers across key Asia-Africa regions. Its integrated localized solutions—covering pre-sales consultation, in-sales support, and after-sales service—have strengthened its competitive edge. Looking ahead, Steyr Automotive’s Austrian plant announced in March that it will start contract manufacturing diesel and electric trucks for Sinotruk, targeting the EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa) market. This move marks Sinotruk’s active push into the high-value, technology-intensive European market, unlocking long-term growth potential for its global expansion.
Valuation & Investment Recommendation
CICC recommends Sinotruk (000951.SZ, 03808.HK). Driven by strong export growth, CICC raised its 2025/2026 profit forecasts for Sinotruk’s A-shares by 7.0%/7.8% to RMB 1.75 billion and RMB 2.01 billion respectively, while introducing a 2027 profit forecast of RMB 2.22 billion for the first time. Profit projections for Sinotruk’s H-shares for 2026/2027 remain largely unchanged, with an initial 2027 profit forecast of RMB 8.76 billion.
Currently, Sinotruk A-shares and H-shares trade at 13.5x and 11.9x 2026 P/E respectively. Given the positive export catalysts that are expected to lift the sector’s valuation floor, CICC increased its target prices for Sinotruk A-shares and H-shares by 20.4% and 75.3% to RMB 29.9 and HKD 47.7, corresponding to 17.5x and 15.0x 2026 P/E—implying 29.4% and 24.0% upside potential from current levels.
Risk Factors
- Geopolitical conflicts disrupting external demand
- Uncertainties around the pace of vehicle replacement policies impacting domestic demand
